When something seems ridiculously apparent, yet in actualfact the opposite is true.
Fred: I do all the work around here!!
Sally: And yet, to the casual observer it would appear you do absolutely nothing!
Fred: That's because nobody sees me work or takes the time to notice -_-
By Marthe
Intuitively Obvious To The Most Casual Observer
Used in an ironic sense to mean that something is completely obvious, when in reality the exact opposite is true.
"The identity of Asmodean's murderer is intuitively obvious to the most casual observer!" --Robert Jordan